Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications–GeoTemporalNet

VAST 2008 Challenge
Grand Challenge

Authors and Affiliations:

Qi Ye, University of Posts and Telecommunications, jack_hill@263.net

Deyong hu, University of Posts and Telecommunications, deron.hu@yahoo.com.cn

Tian Zhu, University of Posts and Telecommunications, zhutian0403@163.com

Student team: YES
faculty advisor:

Bin Wu, University of Posts and Telecommunications, wubin@bupt.eud.cn

Bai Wang, University of Posts and Telecommunications, wangbai@bupt.edu.cn

Tool(s):

In order to combine the analysis of geographic information and link relationships, we developed a tool called GeoTemporalNet based on the framework called JSNVA. GeoTemporalNet is composed of two major parts, one part is used to show the geographical information in the grid on the panel and the other part is used to show the structure of different networks. JSNVA (Java Straight-line drawing Network Visual Analysis framework) is a software framework JSNVA for network visual analysis in different applications. JSNVA has a clear architecture and supports a more systematic way of implementing different straight-line graph drawing algorithms which show different networks on different views. JSNVA can be used as a front-end for visualization and a back-end for analysis in applications, and it can be customized for different applications. The paper of more details about JSNVA will be published in ADMA2008. Based on JSNVA, the data in GeoTemporalNet’s applications are stored in a graph structure as nodes and edges, and if there are relations between two nodes there will be an edge. The information in nodes and edges can be stored and achieved by different keys, such as time, position, names et al.

In this grand challenge, we will use the graph data structure to record the both the relations and positions of different items such as people and boats. Both the time information and position information of each people is stored in these nodes. By using this tool users can not only get the temporal information but also items’ geographic information and relationships between items.

Grand-1. Based on ALL the data available (i.e. using the data from all 4 mini - challenges) what is the social network of the Paraiso movement at the end of the time period?

Figure 1 the social network based on the phone records

GrandNodes.txt

GrandLinks.txt

According to the cell phone call records from June 1^st 2006 to June 10^th 2006, we find that the social network structure of changed greatly on June 8^th 2006. In the first 7 days, the head of the social network was 200. The people in the second level were the red nodes which linked to 200 and communicated with other nodes in the network. In the last 3 days, the red nodes’ positions in the social network were replaced by the nodes in dark blue. The node whose ID was 300 was the only one who communicated with all these four dark blue nodes. Maybe he was also the head of the social network that had the similar position with 200.

The person whose ID is 200 must be Ferdinando Catalano and the person whose ID is 5 must be his brother Estaban Catalano. As the person whose ID is 200 have communicated with 6 persons and the person whose ID is 5 have communicated with him most frequently. They have communicated for 14 times, 15183 seconds during these 10 days. The person whose ID is 3 is the second one who communicates with Ferdinando Catalano most frequently, while they have communicated for 8 times, 8520 seconds. So we believe that the person whose ID is 5 must be Estaban Catalano. We use the page-rank algorithm to find the people’s importance in the social network, and the size of vertices in these figures shows their importance. As David Vidro coordinates high-level Paraiso activities and communications, we find that the person whose ID is 0 communicate with all the important people who communicate with 200. He also communicates with the persons in the second group whose IDs are 306 and 309, as shown in figure 2. We also guess that the persons whose IDs are 1 and 2 may be Juan Vidro and Jorge Vidro. As the person whose ID is 0 in these 10 days have communicated with most important members in these two groups, he must be very important in this social network. The person whose ID is 0 must have equal position with 200 and 300, so we assigned him to the first level whose color is green. The one whose ID is 0 should be David Vidro.

In our opinion, the hierarchy of the Paraiso movement social network has 3 levels: the first level is composed by the persons whose IDs are 0, 200 and 300; the persons who are in red and dark blue are in the second level; other persons in figure 1 are in the third level. We think the persons whose IDs are 1 and 2 must be his brothers Juan Vidro, Jorge Vidro who frequently communicate with Ferdinando Catalano.

Grand-2.  What name or names can be associated with individual activities?

Activities	Names
Try to depart from Isla Del Sueño to USA.	Eduardo Catalano; Jesus Vidro
Try to support the Paraiso movement in the Wikipedia page. There is a “wiki war” around him in the wiki page.	VictoriaV
In the high-level of the Paraiso movement social network.	Ferdinando Catalano; David Vidro; Juan Vidro; Jorge Vidro; Estaban Catalano
Set a small improvised explosive device off at a Miami, Florida Department of Health Building.	Ramon Katalanow; Carlos Vidro

In the migrant boats data set, Eduardo Catalano and Jesus Vidro tried to depart from Isla Del Sueño island to USA. They had tried for three times and they succeeded on the third time. They reached the United States on 2007-02-23. In this data set, only these two persons tried to depart this island for 3 times, while others at most tried 2 times. We should pay more attention on the fact that each time these two persons left together and their family names are Catalano and Vidro.

In the wikipedia challenge, we find the most interesting person is VictoriaV. We can find his position easily both from the comments in wiki edits page and the discussing page. We find VictoriaV is a person who strongly supports the Paraiso movement. In the discussing page there was one who said that he could earn money with services and products related to the Catalano movement.

In the mobile phone record data set, we can get the social network as shown in figure 1. We regard the person whose ID is 200 is Ferdinando Catalano who is on the top level of the social network. The persons who communicate with 200 during these 10 days are Juan Vidro, Jorge Vidro and his brother Estaban Catalano. We also regard the person who ID is 0 is David Vidro who have the similar position in these social network as Ferdinando Catalano.

In the evacuation of the department of health building data set, We find Ramon Katalanow whose ID is 21 must be the suspect in this event. We also find his family name is Katalanow which may be an anamorphosis of Catalano, as their pronunciation is very similar. We find another person whose name is Carlos Vidro in this building. We think the two people may have some relations with the Catalano and Vidro families.

Grand 3. What is the geographical range of the Paraiso Movement and how it changes over time.

Figure 2 the encountering coordinates of migrant boats each year (A) 2005 (B) 2006 (C) 2007

We can mainly get the geographical range of the Paraiso Movement by the migrant boats data set from 2005 to 2007. In the first year, from January 2005 to December 2005, most landing sites were clustered in the area from -81 x 25.5 to -80 x 24.2, as shown in figure 2 (A). In the second year, from January 2006 to December 2006, there were many vessels began to land on the west coast. The coordinate of landing sites became much wider which was mainly from -83 x 27.7 to -80 x 22.4, as shown in figure 2 (B). In April 2006, there were some vessels starting to land in the area near -86.7 x 21.2, and all the vessels landed successfully in this area during the three years. In the last year, from January 2007 to December 2007, there were many vessels landed on the east coast. The landing sites were even wider which was mainly from -83 x 29.5 to -79.5 x 22.3. There was also a small area for landing whose coordinate was about -86.7 x 21.2. All the boats went there landing successfully. As this area was very small and dense, we thought this area must be an island. We can see the landing sites over time by this video. The red nodes indicate the boats which landed successfully and the cyan nodes indicate the boats which were intercepted. In figure 2, the size of nodes indicates different types of boats.

So the geographical range of the Paraiso Movement changes as following: from -81 x 25.5 to -80 x 24.2 in 2005; from -83 x 27.7 to -80 x 22.4 in 2006; from -83 x 29.5 to -79.5 x 22.3 in 2007.

Grand-4.  How do the major beliefs of the Paraiso movement affect their activities?

1) Video  

Wiki

Boat

Phone

Traces

2) Debrief:

Figure 3 the social network of the Wikipedia Paraiso page

 From the data set of the mobile records in August 2006, we can find the social network of the Paraiso movement as shown in figure 3. The people in the four data sets have very strong relations with the Catalano/Vidro families. In the Wiki discussing page, we can also find there are some discussions about the "Followers being forced to work without pay". In the Wiki discussing page and edits page, we can also find many discussing about female’s rights. They mentioned that “the females get kicked out or locked away if they refuse the males' wishes”. So we think the Paraiso movement involved in violent activities and it is controversial.

The process of the Paraiso movement evolved as following: first, as the Isla Del Sueño government crackdown on the Paraiso social and religious movement, there was a mass movement of persons departing Isla Del Sueño for the United States during 2005-2007. There was a drastic discussing on the Parasido movement on Wikipedia. The discussing was mainly about the people who supported the Parasido movement and these who were against it. Some people from the Catalano/Vidro families also moved to the USA successfully. At last, in August 2007, a small improvised explosive device was set off at a Miami, Florida Department of Health (DOH) Building, resulting in casualties and moderate damage by the people who supported the Paraiso movement.

3) Detailed Answer:

As shown in figure 3, we can find the social network of the Wikipedia Paraiso page. The thickness indicates the times of their “support and against” relationships. We also set a threshold to test whether the relationships are “against” or “support”. After counting their “support and against” relationship times, we get the fraction of “against” relationships. In order to get the “against” relationship more strictly, we choose the edges whose fractions of “against” are above 0.6 as the “against” relations. In figure 3, we use the red edges to show the “against” relations and the blue edges to show the “support” relationships. On closer inspection we can realize these patterns indicate what the Wikipedia community called “edit wars”. We can find that the most controversial contributor may be VictoriaV, as there are a lot strong “against” edges link to him. His main opponents are Edemir, Rm99, Agustin, DailosTamanca, Sara et al. We can also get that BakBOT, Edemir, Seina are friends. DailosTamanca, Genoveva and Mercenario97 are friends, while 82.152.249.x is an opponent to all of them. As we can find VictoriaV strongly support the Paraiso movement by reading the discussing page and wiki edits page.

Some one in the Wikipedia discussing page even said that VictoriaV could earn money from the Paraiso movement. VictoriaV was the core “edit war” contributor whose main opponents were Edemir, Rm99, Agustin, DailosTamanca, Cuarto and Sara et al. In the Wiki discussing page and edits page, there were many discussing about female’s rights. They mentioned that “the females get kicked out or locked away if they refuse the males' wishes”. So we think the Paraiso movement involved in violent activities and it is controversial.

Figure 4 the number of boats from leave the island from 2005 to 2007

Figure 5 successful landing rate over the three years

As the Isla Del Sueño government crackdown on the Paraiso social and religious movement, there was a mass movement of persons departing Isla Del Sueño for the United States during 2005-2007. As shown in figure 4, the departing reached its peaks at June 2006 and June 2007. The successful landing rate in 2006 and 2007 also kept at a very high level, as shown in figure 5. From the lists of passenger names in the migrant boat records, we can find there are two persons whose behaviors are very strange. We should pay more attention on the fact that each time these two persons left together and their family names are Catalano and Vidro. They reached the United States on 2007-02-23. We think they must come from the Catalano and Vidro families from the Isla Del Sueño island.

Figure 6 the persons’ positions at the Miami, Florida Department of Health (DOH) Building

Just after the migrant peaks in 2007, in August 2007, a small improvised explosive device was set off at a Miami, Florida Department of Health (DOH) Building. We can find most people in the red circle in figure 6 (A) stopped moving just after the time when the explosive device was set off. It indicates they were seriously injured in the accident by the bomb. Ramon Katalanow was the only one who moved greatly in this area before the time when the explosive device was set off. So we think the device was set off in the red circle in figure 6 (A) in the coordinates from 61 x 33 to 67 x 29. Ramon Katalanow was the only one who moved greatly in this area before the time when the explosive device was set off. We can also find his family name is Katalanow which have the similar pronunciation with Catalano.

There was another person in the building whose name was Carlos Vidro who also had the family name of Vidro. We are quite sure that Ramon Katalanow set the device off in this building. Ramon Katalanow and Carlos Vidro might come from the Catalano and Vidro families in Isla Del Sueño island. Ramon Katalanow and Carlos Vidro may be the aliases of Eduardo Catalano and Jesus Vidro. Eduardo Catalano and Jesus Vidro may be the aliases of Estaban Catalano and Juan Vidro or Jorge Vidro. VictoriaV may be the people from the Vidro family.